College Basketball Odds
Odds for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
College basketball odds No. 8 Tennessee returns to play on Tuesday night, hosting Mississippi State to Thompson-Boling Arena after a short break to ring in the New Year. Last week the College Basketball Odds, the Volunteers started SEC play with a narrow road win against Ole Miss.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs fell to No. 7 Alabama in their SEC opener, dropping the school out of the Top-25 rankings. These are two teams who play extremely difficult defense, and I believe the visitors will struggle to score in this game.
Mississippi State University Bulldogs
Coach Chris Jans got off to a fast start in his first season at Starkville, Miss., winning his first 11 games. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have lost their past two games against the Crimson Tide and Drake.
According to barttorvik.com, Jans’ squad is among the Top 25 in the nation in adjusted efficiency (seventh), opponents’ 2-point shooting (10th), effective field goal % (12th), and turnover percentage (17th).
Meanwhile the College Basketball Odds, the Bulldogs rank 41st in the nation in 3-point defense and foul avoidance. Jans has swiftly transformed this program into one of the best defensive squads in the country.
Aside from offensive issues, the second huge concern surrounding MSU is whether the good stats are distorted due to a light schedule, which is ranked below the Top 280 by Kenpom.
Regardless of the schedule, if Jans can find regular scorers, they might be a dangerous squad on a nightly basis and in March.
Volunteers from Tennessee
Tennessee coach Rick Barnes has established a great program, and this year’s edition is no exception. This is an extremely tough Vols team that is oppressive on defense. Barnes’ squad boasts stronger analytics than the Bulldogs, ranking first in the nation in AdjD, EFG%, and 3-point percentage defense. On defense, this is the same team that ranks third in turnover percentage and tenth in 2-point percentage.
To summarize on the College Basketball Odds, the Volunteers have a fairly great case for being the top defense in the nation, which is certainly not what MSU is looking forward to face given their offensive difficulties.
Barnes also has a balanced scoring attack, with five players averaging double digits this season. Guard Santiago Vescovi leads the Vols with 12.7 points per game, but they may defeat you on any given night with a different lineup.
Betting Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
Looking at the College Basketball Odds, I can’t support Tennessee to win by double digits in a game with a low total, which is why I see the most betting value elsewhere. That being said, my best guess is for Mississippi State’s Team Total to be less than 56 after it is released, which I would play to 54.
The Bulldogs are a bad offensive club, ranking below the Top 200 in AdjO, EFG%, 2-point percentage, and 3-point shooting. This has also occurred in the face of stiff opposition in the non-conference.
MSU scored 58 points against Marquette, 52 against Utah, and 52 against Drake in games against superior teams on their schedule. All of these games were held on neutral ground.
Meanwhile the College Basketball Odds, there are two schools that play at slower tempos, with the Bulldogs ranking 331st and Tennessee ranking 201st. I simply don’t see Jans’ team creating enough quality possessions and shots to surpass this figure, particularly when you give an experienced Vols’ club a whole week to prepare for your attack.
I also don’t mind if the game falls under 121.5, but I believe the team total is a stronger option.
Pick: MSU Total Under 56. (Play to 54)